What’s your advice? KAHNEMAN: Well, all dichotomies are alike in some ways. But it’s in the moment. Most people root for a home team, or they root for their country in the Olympics. . KAHNEMAN: This is something — it’s an emotion over which people have no control, and our socialization has created those emotions in us. All gifts will support the show’s production, including the creation of enhanced transcripts like this one. In the first place, it’s nice, it’s pleasant to be overconfident, especially if you’re an optimist. COWEN: And you think even knowing about this doesn’t change that. I was working with an insurance company, and we did a very standard experiment. COWEN: So it’s the means really that interest you the most. I think there is in the audience a friend of mine, Gary Klein, who is violently opposed to what I’m saying, as are many others. KAHNEMAN: It’s beautiful research. KAHNEMAN: I have really never been interested in anything to do with gender, so I have never studied or looked at differences between gender in the kind of research we did. That works, and we know it does. But I do not consume my memories a lot. That’s neither bias nor noise. KAHNEMAN: About shame, I really have no idea. KAHNEMAN: No, but you identify. I think it’s proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that when you have people making forecasts for the medium term — up to six months, say, in many situations — you can help people thinking carefully without any training, who do better than CIA analysts. Loss aversion being one of the main focuses throughout the book. KAHNEMAN: Yeah. So I’m very lucky. COWEN: Do you think of low intelligence as yet a third independent source of error? . But to exaggerate the odds of success is a very useful thing for people. have undergone a series of revolutionary changes. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. The last 1 percent maybe is very, very difficult. You know how it happened, and it’s likely to happen in many other fields. KAHNEMAN: I think, obviously, recognition-primed decision-making is going to be wonderful if people really can recognize things accurately. Or . It’s happening in dermatology. That’s a technical problem — how long it will take to get the cleanup, the last 1 percent. COWEN: Do you side with the analysts, such as Martin Ford, who see really a very large number of jobs being potentially automatable with artificial intelligence, machine learning? Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise [audio] (libsyn.com) 61 points by gmishuris 43 days ago | hide | past | web | favorite | 10 comments skagar 42 days ago And two, what is the impact of counterfactual thinking on happiness in your study? We’re conditioned to have them under some conditions. So there are certainly cultural differences. You have random variation and then selection. There may be some resemblance. So wisdom of the crowd works under quite specified conditions. There are regularities that you can pick up. KAHNEMAN: Because of sunk costs. To appreciate the distinction, think of your bathroom scale. KAHNEMAN: Yeah, that’s completely foreign. AUDIENCE MEMBER: Many behavioral economists use the notion of rationality in neoclassical economics as a normative benchmark, and you have said that you don’t think that’s necessarily a good normative benchmark. . And I thought that, in a way, it can be an advantage to operate in a second language, that there are certain things . Maybe you’ve never done it, but what would that be? They look facile to me. Some people might argue, “Well, Israelis, they have a tendency to speak directly because they’ve had a lot of crisis situations, where you can’t beat around the bush. Whereas cognitive behavioral therapy is a technique, and it’s a technique that works. You’re consuming bias, right? 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